Winners Curse

Thoughts

  • "The same dynamic applies when you’re optimizing for what to say. You have noisy estimates of how good each option will be, and it’s likely that the one that looks best to you will be an overestimate — perhaps because it interacts with some kind of blindspot you have. If you’re optimizing under shallow honesty, you’re stuck with this problem. With deep honesty, you can hope that you may reveal useful information to people who don’t share your blindspots (even if you don’t know what that information is). And especially when you’re interacting with very competent people, you may not be so good at telling how they will receive any particular message."

References